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Not afraid of the international oil price callback, the domestic energy and chemical futures is the only one
Release date: September 20, 2019

However, the price of ethylene glycol futures rose sharply in the international futures market on July 17.

Analysts said that due to the previous trading day, the domestic energy and chemical futures were far less than the international crude oil futures, so there was room for supplementary gains on the 17th. In addition, after the short sharp reduction, the long position increased, which also supported the energy futures to continue to rise. At the same time, the trend of ethylene glycol import in Saudi Arabia will fall in the short term due to the impact of methanol and plastics. But in the medium term, the persistence of the sudden rise in crude oil prices remains to be observed.

     Continue the general upward trend

After the high crude oil price, the rise was suspended. According to Wenhua financial data, the main contract of NYMEX crude oil futures rose sharply to $63.38/barrel on the 16th, and then narrowed, closing up 12.88% on the same day. On the 17th, the electronic disk fell back. As of the time of press release, the contract was at $62 / barrel, down 1.45%.

However, the domestic energy and chemical futures in the previous trading day after a collective large rise, continued to maintain a strong upward momentum on the 17th. By the end of September 17, the main 2001 contracts of plastic futures were closed at a price limit of 7830 yuan / ton, up 3.98%; the main 2001 contracts of ethylene glycol futures closed at 5322 yuan / ton, up 7.13%; the main contracts of fuel oil futures rose by more than 5%; the main contracts of crude oil futures rose by more than 3%; the main contracts of PTA futures rose by more than 2%.

Why does domestic energy and chemical futures survive the international crude oil price correction? Xu yuanqiang, an analyst with the energy and chemical group of Founder medium term futures, said: "on Monday, the international crude oil futures rose by about 13%, while the limit of domestic energy and chemical futures was far less than that range. Therefore, although the international crude oil price in the electronic trading session on Tuesday was back, the domestic energy and chemical futures still remained unchanged There is some room to make up. In addition, the domestic energy and chemical products in the early stage were dominated by short positions. Therefore, when the crude oil price rose sharply, the short position was reduced significantly first, and then the long position was increased. This also led to the continued rise of domestic energy and chemical futures. "

Yang Yijing, chemical products analyst of new era futures, said: "the market's concern about the stability of Saudi Arabia's import source is the main reason for domestic energy and chemical futures to remain strong when the international oil price falls back." Domestic chemicals, especially ethylene glycol and plastics, are highly dependent on Saudi Arabia's imports, of which ethylene glycol accounts for about 42% and PE imports account for about 22%. The attack in Saudi Arabia will lead to the shortage of some raw materials.

     The supply and demand pattern tends to be optimistic in the short term

In addition to the significant boost brought by the sharp rise in upstream crude oil prices, fundamentals also supported the rise of energy and chemical futures.

In terms of the fundamentals of ethylene glycol and plastics, which have increased significantly recently, Yang Yijing said that the sharp rise in the future price of ethylene glycol also stems from the situation of de stocking. Before October, the environmental protection review was strict, the production of coal based plant was limited, and the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remained low. In addition, the terminal demand is expected to improve, and the arrival of the "golden nine silver ten" consumption peak season makes the downstream demand rise significantly. In addition, the supply of ethylene glycol to the port is limited.

In terms of plastics, before Saudi Arabia incident, the market was often disturbed by macro disturbance events. After that, due to the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate and the increase of maintenance of external disk devices, the market expected that the import pressure of PE would be slightly reduced in the future. In addition, the two oil companies (PetroChina and Sinopec) de stocked nearly 200000 tons in August and PE port de stocked obviously. The previous market pessimism has been basically released Short term fundamentals are at an improved inflection point. Therefore, the Saudi Arabian event fermentation stimulated the relative varieties to increase significantly in the short term.

In the short term, Yang Yijing said that the geopolitical situation risk premium has led to a sharp rise in crude oil, which will inevitably drive the price focus of domestic energy and chemical products up. However, the impact of the change in Saudi Arabia's production capacity will also depend on the output of the chemical plant. If Saudi Arabia's supply fails to recover in the short term and the domestic stock demand is expected to be added, the prices of energy and chemicals will be easy to rise but difficult to fall before the "11th" plan. Among them, ethylene glycol and plastics have a stronger trend than PP and methanol.

Xu yuanqiang also believes that before October, domestic chemical futures still have a certain bullish expectation, mainly due to the reduction of supply, the wharf has the expectation of continuous de stocking, while the demand side will not change much before the national day, and the overall supply and demand pattern of energy chemical products is still optimistic.

In the medium term, Xu yuanqiang said that although the impact of Saudi Arabia's attack on oil prices is obvious, due to the current global economic downturn, if oil prices continue to rise, it will limit the room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the context of economic downturn, the United States may release strategic stocks to offset some of Saudi Arabia's crude oil losses. Therefore, the persistence of the sudden rise of crude oil market remains to be observed.

(source: China Securities Journal)